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#1 Billionaire's Competition

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:11 am
by Janos (retired)
I am getting close to the 1,000,000,000 total credit mark. :)


To celebrate I thought we should have a wee comp!


The winner will receive a £10 Amazon gift voucher or a donation to his/her charity of choice.

To be in-line with previous comps: the aim of the comp is to guess what the TSBT total tally will be at the instant that I add that magical 10th digit.

The rules are:

You can enter if you can post on this forum, and aren't me.
Guesses should be to the nearest whole million.
You have one guess each which you can revise as often as you want, right up to the last minute, so long as you don't steal someone else's guess.
I will use Temujin's stats to decide the winner.
My decision, however wrong, is final.

BACKGROUND: I am heading offshore so my coms may be poor and my computers will be un-manned. If the computers crash badly they will not recover.

Good luck!

#2

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:30 am
by Silver
My guess is 8,276 million

#3

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:38 am
by Megacruncher
Yay! A comp!

I'll say 8,275Million.

#4

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:54 am
by PinkPenguin
8.279Million :D

#5

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 1:53 pm
by skywalker tsbt
8.274

Maybe will hit the "10"'s together. :D

#6

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 6:49 pm
by Buster Gunn
8.288

There's always a pessimist.

#7

Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:07 pm
by Alez
8,280 since there a penguin squatting on my guess :tongue3:

#8

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:40 am
by Janos (retired)
The entrants to far...

8,274 Skywalker TSBT
8,275 Megacruncher
8,276 Silver
8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,288 Buster Gunn


Good luck!

#9

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:48 am
by MacDitch
The entrants so far...

8,274 Skywalker TSBT
8,275 Megacruncher
8,276 Silver
8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,281 MacDitch
8,288 Buster Gunn

#10

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:55 am
by Megacruncher
I'll change mine to 8,277.

#11

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:17 pm
by Megacruncher
Actually make that 8,278

8,274 Skywalker TSBT
8,276 Silver
8,278 Megacruncher
8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,281 MacDitch
8,288 Buster Gunn

#12

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:29 am
by Janos (retired)
With a day or three to go everyone is punting out guesses in a narrow band... good luck!

#13

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:08 am
by Megacruncher
I should point out that I'm bunkering in anticipation of the SIMAP comp. Others may be doing likewise. :) So although the team productivity seems to have dropped overnight there will be a huge upsurge in 24 hours when saved up Collatz WUs upload along with the SIMAP ones. This correction should be well before Janos adds his extra digit.

#14

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:39 am
by Alez
no bunkering here :( (in fact I'm struggling to get cores over to this at all. May be a poor effort from moi until I can get home to physically suspend or abort units :evil: )

#15

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:24 am
by Silver
Megacruncher wrote:I should point out that I'm bunkering in anticipation of the SIMAP comp. Others may be doing likewise. :) So although the team productivity seems to have dropped overnight there will be a huge upsurge in 24 hours when saved up Collatz WUs upload along with the SIMAP ones. This correction should be well before Janos adds his extra digit.
I'm certainly trying to get some SIMAP units stockpiled ready for tomorrow morning, fingers crossed I've worked it out right!
I'm with Mega on this one - My guess is that it shouldn't really make much difference to our total other than a days delay in gaining the credit so I'm sticking with my guess at the moment.
I would say good luck chaps but i'd like to win this ;-)

#16

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 1:21 pm
by skywalker tsbt
\frac{d}{dt}A(t)=\frac{i}{\hbar}[H,A(t)]+\frac{\partial A(t)}{\partial t}

Lets see if my algorithm works on this. It always work for the 'guess the Jelly Beans in the jar' contest.

2.74 stands

#17

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 4:58 pm
by PinkPenguin
Skywalker TSBT wrote:\frac{d}{dt}A(t)=\frac{i}{\hbar}[H,A(t)]+\frac{\partial A(t)}{\partial t}

Lets see if my algorithm works on this. It always work for the 'guess the Jelly Beans in the jar' contest.

2.74 stands
:scratch: :tongue3:

#18

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 5:09 pm
by Janos (retired)
Megacruncher wrote:I should point out that I'm bunkering in anticipation of the SIMAP comp. Others may be doing likewise. :) So although the team productivity seems to have dropped overnight there will be a huge upsurge in 24 hours when saved up Collatz WUs upload along with the SIMAP ones. This correction should be well before Janos adds his extra digit.
... and what if I am bunkering? :)

#19

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 5:33 pm
by Andy Manzie
I will guess 8,277

#20

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:12 pm
by Janos (retired)
Current state:

8,274 Skywalker TSBT
8,276 Silver
8,277 Andy Manzie
8,278 Megacruncher
8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,281 MacDitch
8,288 Buster Gunn

#21

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:12 pm
by Alez
Andy Manzie wrote:I will guess 8,277
Quality lurking !!
I figure with only 3.2 till Janos hits the target that 8,277 will be the winning number :(

and in the interest of the science contained within I demand that Mr Skywalker provides a larger version of the interesting picture on his signature :D

#22

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:33 pm
by Alez
I think I've figured it out.... is it Pink Floyd album covers ? or at least I know 2 of them are, the rest I can't quite make out.

#23

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:34 pm
by skywalker tsbt
Atom Heart Mother, Relics, Dark Side of the Moon, Wish you were here, the Wall and my personal favorite, Animals!!

Image

#24

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:34 pm
by skywalker tsbt
Big enough?

#25

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:39 pm
by Alez
Skywalker TSBT wrote:Big enough?
A fine sight indeed.....although the division bell was my favorite :D

#26

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:39 pm
by Janos (retired)
Skywalker TSBT wrote:\frac{d}{dt}A(t)=\frac{i}{\hbar}[H,A(t)]+\frac{\partial A(t)}{\partial t}
See http://www.codecogs.com/latex/eqneditor.php

Unfortunately our version of phpBB is old so the board code will not display a nice formula.

#27

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:41 pm
by skywalker tsbt
Janos wrote:
Skywalker TSBT wrote:\frac{d}{dt}A(t)=\frac{i}{\hbar}[H,A(t)]+\frac{\partial A(t)}{\partial t}
It is a maths formula. See http://www.codecogs.com/latex/eqneditor.php

Unfortunately our version of phpBB is old so the board code will not display a nice formula.
Heisenberg's

#28

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:23 pm
by Megacruncher
Just to return to topic. :roll:

Rather than distort the stats too much in the closing day of the comp I reckoned that I could upload most of the Collatz units with only a few of the Simap ones getting through (being a thousand times bigger slows them down).

So the situation is that Janos has just 2.75 M to go and the team total stands at 8,268.5M

Unless Janos is bunkering it is going to be one of the block of guesses, so no room for any jockeying for position.

#29

Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:32 pm
by Janos (retired)
Good luck guys. Unfortunately I will be in transit to the North Sea tomorrow so I won't be able to watch the magic number tick by. My coms will be non-existent all day tomorrow and very restricted for the next few weeks. Catch you on the flip side!

#30

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:21 am
by Megacruncher
Midnight has Struck. Janos has 2.4 M to go & the team total is 8,271.1.
Skywalker & Buster should budge up and the rest of us can only sit tight and hope we win. Good luck to everyone, especially me!
:?

#31

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:24 am
by Megacruncher
Skywalker TSBT wrote:Atom Heart Mother, Relics, Dark Side of the Moon, Wish you were here, the Wall and my personal favorite, Animals!!
And was there ever a B side ever released of this? :wink:

#32

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:22 am
by MacDitch
Just checked in and the numbers currently are:

Janos - 998,900,727
TSBT - 8,276,215,104

So that's a little under 1.1 million to go...

#33

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:35 am
by Silver
I'm changing to 8,282

#34

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:47 am
by MacDitch
Current state:

8,274 Skywalker TSBT ##ALREADY PASSED##

8,277 Andy Manzie
8,278 Megacruncher
8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,281 MacDitch
8,282 Silver
8,288 Buster Gunn

#35

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:05 pm
by PinkPenguin
...Well he's onto his last milion which means sometime in the next 6-7 hours (unless, of course, he's got hidden reserves or someone else dumps a whole bunch of credits)... :D

#36

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:29 pm
by MacDitch
The midday update had the numbers at:

Janos - 999,316,487
TSBT - 8,277,757,000

So it would look like Megacruncher or PinkPenguin will take the prize, though anything could happen!

#37

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:57 pm
by skywalker tsbt
Well, I at least hit an extra digit today.

10,000,000!!

Should be caught up MC and Janos, oh say, by the end of the month?!!

#38

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:47 pm
by MacDitch
Congrats Skywalker! A mighty achievement. :cheers: :hello1: :thumbright:

As of the 1pm update, the numbers were:

Janos - 999,454,943
TSBT - 8,278,248,817

Which gives us a current guess state of:

8,274 Skywalker TSBT ##ALREADY PASSED##
8,277 Andy Manzie ##ALREADY PASSED##

8,278 Megacruncher
8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,281 MacDitch
8,282 Silver
8,288 Buster Gunn

PS. Can you tell I'm bored and avoiding real work today??!

#39

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:05 pm
by MacDitch
Still at work, still avoiding it!

As of the 4pm update, the numbers were:

Janos - 999,737,912
TSBT - 8,279,106,377

Which gives us a current guess state of:

8,274 Skywalker TSBT ##ALREADY PASSED##
8,277 Andy Manzie ##ALREADY PASSED##
8,278 Megacruncher ##ALREADY PASSED##

8,279 PinkPenguin
8,280 alezevo1
8,281 MacDitch
8,282 Silver
8,288 Buster Gunn

#40

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:47 pm
by Alez
just checked
janos --- 1,000,012,150
TSBT --- 8,280,472,400

and the winner is ..... :oops:

#41

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:55 pm
by Silver
alezevo1 wrote:just checked
janos --- 1,000,012,150
TSBT --- 8,280,472,400

and the winner is ..... :oops:
Well done!! :thumbright:

#42

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:03 pm
by PinkPenguin
I believe we have a winner... :hello1:

Image

#43

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:37 pm
by Alez
So I win ... again :D
I'll have to prepare my acceptance speech :D

#44

Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:28 pm
by MacDitch
Damn it! I was so close as well!

Well done Alezevo1, I look forward to the speech. :P

#45

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:06 am
by Megacruncher
Of course if I hadn't managed to get the GTX590 working again, after all the good guesses had been grabbed, the tally could have been 2 million fewer, in which case ....

Well done, I want a video of the speech - not just a transcript!

#46

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:00 am
by Buster Gunn
Congrats to both alezevo1 and janos.

Good guesser and good cruncher. :blob4: :blob5:

O0ps - Forgot Skywalker - Great job there also :blob7:

#47

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:07 am
by Janos (retired)
Thanks guys and congratulations to alezevo1 for winning the comp! Congratulations also to Skywalker for passing another major milestone!

So Mr alezevo1, which chartity would you like your winnings to go to or would you like a few coins to offset your lecky bill?

Thanks for the screenshot PP. It looks strange seeing all those zeros!

#48

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:52 pm
by skywalker tsbt
Congrat's Janos.

A club, elite, joined, you have.

:thumbup:

#49

Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:30 am
by Alez
Janos,
When you get the time please donate my winnings to either The RAF benevolent fund, Help for Heroes or the RNLI . I'll leave the choice up to you.
thanks once again for setting up the comp and for ponying up the prize fund :)