January "guess the total" competition

Make a guess and you could win prizes!
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#1 January "guess the total" competition

Post by FlyingfocRS »

OK folks slight change of tack here from the previous competitions.
What will the teams cumulative total be according to Boincstats at 22:00 GMT on Thursday the 31st January?
Guesses to be made to the nearest 1000.
Closest to the correct total will win a nice bottle of whisky donated jointly by myself and BusterGunn.
Competition is open to all members of The Scottish Boinc Team with only one clause.
You must be actively crunching for the team throughout the duration of the competition.
Guesses can be made and altered until 22:00 GMT on the 15th of January.
That's it folks nice and simple.
Good luck and get guessing.
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#2

Post by FlyingfocRS »

FlyingfocRS - 50,840,001
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#3

Post by Snowdog »

51,250,000
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#4

Post by dougdoug »

51,047,924
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#5

Post by Reeltime »

50756000

Depending on what santa brings everyone for christmas
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#6

Post by Buster Gunn »

Thats an easy one. 52135684.55. The swami see's an uptick in the daily RAC. :twisted:
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#7

Post by Nightlord »

Hmmm....me thinks Buster has something up his sleeve!

I'll take a shot at 52,000,000, especially if Willie pulls his finger out and stops playing catch-up :wink:
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#8

Post by Megacruncher »

I'll take a shot at 52,000,000, especially if Willie pulls his finger out and stops playing catch-up :wink:
I'm playing catch up very well thanks. Soon I'll be playing overtake. After that the game will be leave far behind! :lol: Maybe I should just move the 3rd Quad to 64 bit ABC by way of a coup de grace?

Anyhow I think you are being a bit cautious. Our RAC goes up & up. A very welcome portent is that after nearly a month of apparent inactivity Iain Aikman has uploaded over 40K of credit. :D

So my guess is 52,500,000!
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#9

Post by Buster Gunn »

Hmmm....me thinks Buster has something up his sleeve!
One never knows what just may pop up.
Buster is my dog. Sadly, Buster is gone.
Buster is the Malamute, Obi is the Golden.

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#10

Post by MacDitch »

Well, somebody had to do it. :) Here's the guesses so far:

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,001
DougDoug . . . . . 51,047,924
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,684.55
MacDitch . . . . . . 52,350,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000

PS Can I suggest that answers are given in / restricted to thousands? It might get a tad ridiculous trying to guess the value to a hundreth of a credit.... :roll:
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#11

Post by Megacruncher »

PS Can I suggest that answers are given in / restricted to thousands? It might get a tad ridiculous trying to guess the value to a hundreth of a credit.... :roll:
I would go further and suggest that all guessea are rounded off to the nearest 10,000. At current levels that represents just a couple of hours of crunching for the team. :)
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#12

Post by MacDitch »

I would go further and suggest that all guessea are rounded off to the nearest 10,000. At current levels that represents just a couple of hours of crunching for the team. :)
I'm happy with that, but I guess it is up to the guys fronting the prizes. FlyingfocRS? Buster Gunn? Any opinions on this suggested ammendment?
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#13

Post by Buster Gunn »

I'm happy with that, but I guess it is up to the guys fronting the prizes. FlyingfocRS? Buster Gunn? Any opinions on this suggested ammendment?
I have no problem with it. And seeing I was the smart A** that went all the way down to the hundredth of a point, I amend my guess to be 52,135,000.
Buster is my dog. Sadly, Buster is gone.
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#14

Post by FlyingfocRS »

OK I have amended the original post to reflect this.
If those of us who have made guesses out witht he rules could resubmit them. :oops:
Ta
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#15

Post by FlyingfocRS »

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
DougDoug . . . . . 51,047,924 **to be amended**
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 52,350,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
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#16

Post by MacDitch »

I'd have rounded off DougDoug's guess as he was only 76 credits off a round number anyway. :) Of course, this may be an ideal opportunity to change his guess...

It's interesting that we have nearly a two million spread - but then it is nearly three months away. :?
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#17

Post by dougdoug »

Had a quick trip to Edinburgh on Tues.night.
Just got home now. amended guess is 51,050,000
Thanx McDitch,hope that's what you put down for me
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#18

Post by MacDitch »

Hope you had a nice evening. :)

The guesses now stand at:

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
DougDoug . . . . . 51,050,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 52,350,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000

Good luck everyone, and may we all have guessed low! :) :)
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#19

Post by Jim Mackay »

53,000,001
Jim Mackay

#20

Post by Jim Mackay »

Ops sorry about double post damed slow at times on this hotel connection never mind back home tomorrow
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#21

Post by MacDitch »

Jim, guesses need to be in multiples of 1,000. Do you want me to knock the 1 off?

PS. I've deleted the duplicate post for you.
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#22

Post by dougdoug »

I'll be the first to make a new guess,having looked at the number of newbies every week.
It's a big jump.
52,700,000
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#23

Post by MacDitch »

Ok, it's been a hectic weekend but thankfully I'm now back at work for a break. :) I've had a chance to look over the recent numbers and have decided to re-evaluate the team performance. In short, this is a long winded way of saying I'm changing my guess!

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
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#24

Post by viperjbm2 »

Reeltime . . . . . . 50,756,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000

Figured I would toss in a wild and semi uneducated guess :-) I'll be watching this, it should be fun :-)
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#25

Post by Reeltime »

Hmmmm..... just got back and seen the dramatic upturn in RAC....

better update my guestimate.....

52,580,000

cheers
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#26

Post by Reeltime »

ANd another update on my guess, 53,320,000
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#27

Post by CycloneRanger »

53,510,000

Optimistic, and willing to be more so. :lol:
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#28

Post by MacDitch »

There's been a few changes (mostly by Reeltime!) so I thought I'd do another roll-call, just to keep it all staright. :)

FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
Megacruncher. . . 52,500,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
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#29

Post by Megacruncher »

I'll tweak it a wee bit to reflect recent progress.

FlyingfocRS . . . . 50,840,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
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#30

Post by utopia-i »

mmmm ...

53,456,000

I'm happy to donate a small prize - PM me
... is that apple pie I smell

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#31

Post by FlyingfocRS »

Snowdog . . . . . . 51,250,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
utopia-i...............53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000
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#32

Post by FlyingfocRS »

Only 5 days left to amend your guesses folks.
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#33

Post by Snowdog »

Thanks for the reminder Mike

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
utopia-i...............53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000
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#34

Post by RavyDavy »

not took part in the competition in a while, so my guess is 53,700,000:

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 52,135,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,250,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
utopia-i...............53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000
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#35

Post by Buster Gunn »

I'm going to up my guess to 53,400,000. :idea:
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#36

Post by MacDitch »

I'm going to up my guess to 53,400,000.
Done. Afraid I'm going to be pessimistic and keep mine low. :(

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,200,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,280,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 53,400,000
utopia-i . . . . . . . 53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000
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#37

Post by Megacruncher »

Of course, a lot depends on Buster's occasional huge uploads. I'll shift my guess to just beside his. :wink:

Nightlord . . . . . . 52,000,000
DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,280,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 53,400,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,430,000
utopia-i . . . . . . . 53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000
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#38

Post by Nightlord »

I reckon a small adjust from me:


DougDoug . . . . . 52,700,000
Jim Mackay . . . . 53,000,000
Nightlord . . . . . . 53,250,000
MacDitch . . . . . . 53,280,000
Reeltime . . . . . . 53,320,000
Buster Gunn. . . . 53,400,000
Megacruncher. . . 53,430,000
utopia-i . . . . . . . 53,456,000
viperjbm2 . . . . . 53,500,000
CycloneRanger. . 53,510,000
RavyDavy. . . . . .53,700,000
Snowdog . . . . . . 53,950,000
FlyingfocRS . . . . 54,000,000
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#39

Post by Buster Gunn »

Of course, a lot depends on Buster's occasional huge uploads. I'll shift my guess to just beside his.
I promise I will empty out my queues in time to be calculated. :D
Buster is my dog. Sadly, Buster is gone.
Buster is the Malamute, Obi is the Golden.

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#40

Post by FlyingfocRS »

Last chance to submit new or amend old guesses folks.
Last guesses to be made by 22:00 GMT tonight.
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#41

Post by FlyingfocRS »

CLOSED
Good luck folks.
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#42

Post by Megacruncher »

So that's 16 days (minus two hours) to crunch another 2,323,000? That sounds about right 8) if we manage an average of 145K per day. Err, got that upload yet Buster?
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#43 first to concede

Post by dougdoug »

The difference between my guess and the next one up is 300,000.
tsbt total has now gone 156,000 more than I needed.
Good Luck guys. :cry:
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#44 Re: First to concede

Post by MacDitch »

The tsbt total has now gone more than halfway between me and the next guess. I submit,concede,give in,throw in the towel.
Good luck guys.
If it hadn't of been for some amazing upload days you my have faired well, but don't be downhearted. With four (and a bit) days to go, I suspect you're only the first of several that will prove to have been low with their guesses; including me. :(
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#45

Post by Megacruncher »

Indeedy. With 95 hrs to go and the total at 53,004,213 it seems likely that the final total will be, assuming we manage 140K per day, somewhere about 53,565,000 (give or take 65,000 or so).

Basically I think I, and all those even less optimistic than me, can only watch as the total mounts higher & higher. Which is far from being all bad. :lol:
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#46

Post by viperjbm2 »

Wow... with an initial semi-uneducated shot in the dark I will come close if you're right on the totals megacruncher! I won't win lol seeing as I am sandwiched in between a couple of my respected peers (gives evil eye look at them lol). But being new to this it is going to be cool to see how it plays out! Good luck to the still hopefulls and my condolences to the members dropping out of the race! (Next time be more optomistic about the coolest BOINC team ever! lol)
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#47

Post by MacDitch »

Well, with only 49 hours to go the team total currently stands at 53,307,811.05 credits.

Projects accumulated RAC is 149,854
BoincStats average RAC is 145,425

Which all supports Megacrunchers estimates of two days ago. Of course, the uploads have been a trifle... eratic... of late; so it's still anyones guess. :)
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#48

Post by FlyingfocRS »

I'll do an update and prediciton at midnight tonight and tomorrow as well.
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#49

Post by Buster Gunn »

Because of my location and time difference from GMT, I'll empty my queues sometime tomorrow (about 30 hours from now) in hope that everything will get added in.

It should be a close finish. Good luck all. :idea: :idea:
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#50

Post by FlyingfocRS »

OK at midnight with 48 hours to go we have
53,314,128
RAC is 149,831
So projected total is
53,613,790
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