The Referendum

Post by **Megacruncher** » Tue May 06, 2014 11:48 pm

We usually keep this board fairly politics free, there being many valid ways of being Scottish etc, and also because we don't want to end up fighting among ourselves.

But in this historic year with just 4 months to go until Scotland decides whether to become an independent country or not, we shouldn't really ignore it. TSBT are not going to make the CBI error of alienating even a minority of members by declaring a party line but some respectful and good natured debate might be in order and certainly it would be interesting to see what people think.

The actual vote will be limited to people over 16 on the electoral role in Scotland. TSBT will also allow a say to exiles, the diaspora and anyone else polite enough to take an interest in our future.

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Wed May 07, 2014 2:01 am

Posted my vote. Given my background, no cigar for which way I voted

I will try to be restrained by simply saying anyone who thinks other than myself is ' misguided '

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Wed May 07, 2014 9:54 am

Think its safe to say a certain Mr Salmond isn't a member of tsbt - yet.

If I'm being honest the 'idea' of independence does appeal to me; problem is I think the world has moved on since Braveheart.
I still haven't heard a really good reason to break up the Union, and what quantifiable benefit it will bring me and our country.

I still feel that there is a lack of - factual - information, it's all very well telling me what "could" be done in an independent Scotland, if you want to convince me to change my mind you need to tell me what CAN be done and how.
The whole premise that we vote yes on what is essentially a wishlist and then start to negotiate with the UK and Europe etc to establish where we stand and what our options are is not particularly helpful.
I can't see how wanting to be independent and then signing up to use the pound but with absolutely no control and input over it puts us in a better position. Likewise I can't see how is separating then joining the EU on what we'll have to be a worse deal than we currently have - can't see us keeping all the UK opt outs we currently have; if we have to apply from outside. Surely again that's us losing control which is exactly what independence is supposed to bring.

The more politicians waffle on the more questions they create rather than answer!

In true forum speak:
Tl dr - Not for me

Post by **scole of TSBT** » Wed May 07, 2014 2:45 pm

I'm not from Scotland or the UK, but I'll ask anyway. What are the pros and cons of seceding from the UK? Has the UK agreed to allow the secession? If not, what have they expressed they would do to prevent it?

Post by **Buster Gunn** » Wed May 07, 2014 5:06 pm

Also being from the States, I have a biased view of being independent but would like to hear the pros and cons.

Post by **scole of TSBT** » Wed May 07, 2014 6:41 pm

Well, as I often do, consult the wiki for an initial look at a topic...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_i ... ndum,_2014

Not a very simple issue.

Post by **Buster Gunn** » Wed May 07, 2014 8:00 pm

Good read. You are correct. Not an easy choice.

Post by **Megacruncher** » Wed May 07, 2014 10:23 pm

scole250 wrote:I'm not from Scotland or the UK, but I'll ask anyway. What are the pros and cons of seceding from the UK? Has the UK agreed to allow the secession? If not, what have they expressed they would do to prevent it?

First up the UK government have allowed the referendum and will accept the outcome.
David Cameron is ostensibly campaigning for a No vote but was much more willing to deal with Alex S than were his Labour forebears. This might be a marker of his respect for Scottish Democracy or it might be that he can cope with the possibility of losing a bit of the Kingdom that never votes for his party anyway.

As for the pros & cons, that is what we are arguing about.

Obviously independence means being master of your own destiny. Having said which Scottish national identity within the union is already strong and many of us are also quite happy being British which would be lost. Most of us are also happy to be European and it seems very clear that, although I'm sure we'd be allowed to join the EU eventually, we will be out in the cold for a while and won't have the benefit of any of the current UK concessions.

Whether we will be financially better or worse off independent probably depends on how long the oil lasts and oil prices remaining high. The currency issue is a worry though although having a currency union with Remainder UK didnt sound much like independence. On the other hand I'm not sure I want to be getting paid in Groats, Merks, Bawbees or bags of oatmeal or whatever Alex's plan B is.

MacDitch · Post by **MacDitch** » Tue May 27, 2014 11:40 am

I'll be honest, as a Scotsman abroad I haven't paid a lot of attention due to the fact I get no say!

The consideration I have given it is much inline with Silver, I like the idea but not convinced by the practicalities. Even Mega's line of "depends on how long the oil lasts and oil prices remaining high" is actually a secondary aspect - first it depends how much of the North Sea is relinquished into Scottish Power. There is a strong argument in the South that the existing border be extended on the same trajectory; this results in a substantial amount of the 'Scottish' North Sea being English...

Janos (retired) · Post by **Janos (retired)** » Tue May 27, 2014 4:25 pm

MacDitch wrote:There is a strong argument in the South that the existing border be extended on the same trajectory; this results in a substantial amount of the 'Scottish' North Sea being English...

This has already happened.

Andy Manzie · Post by **Andy Manzie** » Wed May 28, 2014 10:20 pm

I no longer live in Scotland, so donâ€™t get a vote. If I said what I really think about Independence I would properly get banned from the forum.

I can express my feeling in 1 word â€“ Synergy â€“ to stop you scurrying away for your dictionaries it means the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

I just hope that the people of Scotland come to their senses in time to vote NO

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Thu May 29, 2014 12:51 am

Andy Manzie wrote: If I said what I really think about Independence I would properly get banned from the forum.

Couldn't have put it better

Post by **scole of TSBT** » Thu May 29, 2014 1:44 am

I'm from the states, but I try to pay attention to world events. There's countries all over tearing themselves apart because people don't want to stand united next to others of different ethic or cultural traditions. I understand every situation is not the same and I don't know all the issues and economics people are considering in Scotland, but I hope the Scottish people understand they have a very strong cultural identity and presence in the world and donâ€™t want to secede just for the sake of being completely independent. Itâ€™s an expensive and risky place to be. The US and Britain put their differences aside over 200 years ago and have stood together ever since. I hope the people of UK can stand together while letting each country be their own at the same time.

Janos (retired) · Post by **Janos (retired)** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:21 am

Anyone starting to panic about the result? The "what if"?

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:59 am

I must admit to being a tad ' uncomfortable ' that the result may be closer than predicted

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:06 am

Being honest I suppose I've been trying to ignore it.
Slightly concerned that our good results at the commonwealth games are yet again going to lead people to think independence is a great idea.
Must renew my passport and pack my suitcase.....

Janos (retired) · Post by **Janos (retired)** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:48 am

I'm sure wee Eck scheduled the vote to be just after the buzz of the games. Smart wee fecker he is, ya have to give him that.

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 12:44 pm

I think the whole summer of events has been ' stage managed ' to come to a crescendo of patriotism at the election. Wee Eck , el presidente for life ' may well be 'slicket' but he is definitely not stupid.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:02 pm

Oh no, he is definitely not stupid. I think he's a tool but a very sharp one.
Credit where credit is due he is a great orator and can fairly get a crowd going and drag them along with him. That's one of the things that concerns me!
I also think your right Alez, the whole of this year had been staged to maximum Braveheart effect - and we've still got the golf to go yet.
I'm just keeping my fingers crossed!

Post by **Megacruncher** » Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:22 am

Actually I think Eck is stupid. That or he thinks we are.
He shouts down poor old clueless A Darling and then promises us untold benefits in Health and childcare where of course he has been in control for many a year.
The main risks, as well of course as "the great unwashed benefit sponges [sobering up enough] to vote" [btw: I suspect you can't say that

] is that the prospect of Farage's loonies gaining traction in Englandshire and frightening peeps into the yes camp.
For me one of the more dis-quieting bits of the day's news was that some arm-chair Moron on Twitter who spoke about assassinating Eck has been sent to jail whereas some rather more active thugs who physically assaulted Jim Murphy, Labour MP , campaigning for No, in full view of BBC cameras, forcing him to suspend his campaign, have not even been arrested.
A taste of the one party state to come perhaps?

myshortpencil · Post by **myshortpencil** » Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:47 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_po ... ndum,_2014

Statistically, it looks like independence is a loser, to me. It will be interesting to see the percentage of voter turnout, though.

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 3:58 pm

I'm quoting Janos here

Genuinely scared the great unwashed benefit sponges will be sober enough to vote

with the bile and pure racist remarks flying around, I am NOT currently very proud of my fellow countrymen.

Post by **Megacruncher** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:16 pm

Of course it's a democracy so we shouldn't deny the socially excluded their right to vote, or indeed denigrate their states of hygiene or temperance! :) A valid concern however is that Eck tempts them with the promise of bigger slices of a bigger cake and we get a yes vote. [The polls are looking awful close?

] Unless all of Eck's wild assumptions turn out to be correct, post-independence the promised big cake might well turn out to be a rather small state packet of co-op shortbread. Those hoping for the continuation of a benefit culture and planning to party like it's 1945 will almost certainly be sorely disappointed. Then what will happen, apart from high taxes, civil unrest and a raid on gold-plated public sector pensions?

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:38 pm

Then those of us that actually choose to haul our asses out of bed in the morning to work will be mightily fleeced to pay for the socialist utopia ek is promising. Maybe I am being pessimistic, but common sense truly seems to be flying out the window in a vision of wonderland that ek and nippy sweety are promising.
Sad to say, but at least thankfully my job does not tie me to a geographical location.
I'm not against independence, but I am against this complete leap into the dark on the promises of a snake oil salesman. I deal in facts and figures, risk and return and properly prepared analysis and planning. I have no experience of unicorn farts and magic wands.
Deeply troubled by this slide towards oblivion

Post by **scole of TSBT** » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:57 pm

My observations, at least here in the US, seem to reflect that those pushing for major change usually benefit financially even if it means a loss for many others. What is Alex Salmond's motivation? Pardon my ignorance of the issues.

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:08 am

Ego, a belief that he is always correct regardless of what experts tell him and a desire for independence at any cost to the country. The man is a fanatic.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:16 pm

Alez wrote: The man is a fanatic.

Almost spat out my coffee there, I thought you'd said fantastic

Once I double checked I then realised I should've put my glasses on before I loggged on

scole250 wrote:What is Alex Salmond's motivation?.

To be the next king of Scotland, or el presidente I suspect.

fun fact - El Presidente was a Scottish pop rock band from Glasgow 2002-2007

Post by **Megacruncher** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:05 am

Bloody hell!

The Gnats are in front!

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/s ... 199168.ece
Time to load my possessions into a purloined Waitrose trolley & to head for the refugee camps which may soon be an all too familiar part of the Northumbrian landscape!

Alternatively I'll maybe sit tight and see what happens, Maybe, as a precaution, force the kids to watch a few Rab C Nesbitt box sets to see if, despite having lived all their lives in Deepest Morningside, they might acquire Scottish accents. Of course they could just try copying me! Or better still my father although thus far it's generally it's been a case of "Dad! Grandad's on the phone. But I don't know what he's saying! Can you talk to him!"

I'm definitely going to vote No! but I've got to confess to a frisson of excitement at the prospect of really being in the early days of a new nation. I just hope it doesn't wreck my pension.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:10 pm

I know! I was fairly surprised and I'm really not sure how its going to play out.

I am very concerned that people aren't thinking - I was going to say properly but I think I'll leave it as is!
'We' seem to be getting swept up in the promise of some sort of: fantastic, equal, fair, unbiased, and modern utopian Scotland.
Which while sounding incredible, the details of how this promised land will actually be achieved are somewhat lacking. We still don't know what money we will be using for starters, which then leads nicely into the question of what happens to my sterling mortgage which will then be issued by a foreign bank!
Your right Mega, I'm also lucky enough to be concerned about my pension and a multitude of other things. What about my passport, I haven't even got my new one yet but will it be usable for the ten years?

I also am concerned about how we will all survive with each other no matter which way the result goes, there are some frankly horrific attitudes and behaviour on the go. It's not all by the yes camp but they certainly seem to be more aggresive and are not prepared - or in some cases capable - of having any sort of discussion/debate.

As an example of some peoples ignorance and inability to understand what's happening:
Someone I know posted on facebook an article about how under independence Asda would be able to lower the price of goods, I thought that was a fairly interesting headline and was somewhat surprised that they would come out on one side like that.
Having read the article, Asda said under independence that if the government were to lower taxes and rates etc. they would be able to reduce the cost of shopping!!! The guy that posted it is a BIG yes supporter, I guess he read the headline and thought that it supported his stance and either didn't read the article or didn't understand it.

I fear we may all be doomed

Sorry for the long rambling post!

TL;DR
I fear we are screwed

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:47 am

One poll being pushed by Murdoch ( and he's not a despicable little troll with an axe to grind against the UK government ) does not a referendum make. That said I know how you feel. The unreasonable crap and breathtakingly stupid things that people are willing to believe makes the mind boggle. The pound is crashing because of Barack Obama and Syria - really ??? I am disgusted.
The sheer bile, hatred, bigoted and racist garbage being spewed is embarrassing. I'm not even going to repeat some of the things my English born wife ( who insists on wearing a better together badge , and why shouldn't she ), has been subjected to. Needless to say, had I been present, I would be quite gladly facing assault charges as a minimum.
Face Book is a cesspit of keyboard warriors just now. At least my ' friends ' list has been culled

Keep the faith, the only poll that matters, either way , is on the 18th. Get out and vote or afterward put up and shut up.

Post by **robmacagain** » Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:11 am

I am fearing the worst, my father would be fuming if he was still here, he was a Glaswegian but all for the union, most of my relatives still live in and around there too, i hope sense prevails but i just cant call it to be fair, even my son (lives in Brechin) is all in favour of going separate and most of his young friends are too, you need to hear all the stuff he was chuntering about Westminster and the corrupt English *******s, English nicking your oil etc etc and as far as i can see its getting hysterical with all the young ones

.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:54 am

Don't think its just the young ones Rob. It amazes me that nobody seems to be able to apply the "if it sounds to god to be true it probably is" logic to this debate.
I'm not sure why people think that Holyrood is going to be so much better and more honest than Westminster. They're all politicians if that's the issue.
From my point of view if "we" have no control because London is miles away and the numbers are all down south, the exact same will be the case under independence but substituting Edinburgh/central belt for London.
Think I'll have to go for a lie down in a darkened room for 5 minutes to calm down

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:13 am

Isn't Brussels even further away than London ? or has geography been rewritten in indy land to ?

Post by **Megacruncher** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:23 am

The thing is, I don't seem to meet that many yes voters. There's a few hard-core Nat's I know & to be sure there are lots more Yes posters up than No ones (this probably is because of the high cost of glass rather than a true reflection of the balance of public opinion) but like here the vast majority of people I talk to are highly sceptical of the whole leap in the dark idea and know that there's no such thing as a high public spending, low taxation country especially with oil running out and half the financial sector set to scarper. I can only assume that the third of the population who normally don't bother are voting this time and have bought the unfunded fairness guff.

I agree the whole Anglophobic vibe is deeply depressing & I can't but fear that the visit from the two public schoolboys and the weird geeky guy with the lisp is going to make things worse. The whole thing reeks of blind panic - better to denounce the polls as a blip- and neither of the three of them are naturals when it comes to the inevitable photo-op of them all eating haggis suppers together.

Worrying times.

myshortpencil · Post by **myshortpencil** » Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:19 pm

Ok, I'm willing to place my wager. Those supporting independence will be less than 45% of the vote.

Post by **Megacruncher** » Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:45 am

I hope you are right.
Whatever I've started a comp http://www.dunadd.co.uk/seti/forum/view ... =24&t=2395
In which I've placed a guess on your be half.

myshortpencil · Post by **myshortpencil** » Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:47 am

Megacruncher wrote:I hope you are right.
Whatever I've started a comp http://www.dunadd.co.uk/seti/forum/view ... =24&t=2395
In which I've placed a guess on your be half.

How exciting! Thanks :)

myshortpencil · Post by **myshortpencil** » Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:01 pm

How did it come to be that a simple majority is sufficient to make such an important change? I would have thought that the bar would be 60% or even two-thirds, since this is the equivalent of amending a constitution, in my eyes.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:53 pm

That's a great question, and I too would like to know the answer.
I'm not sure if the assumption was that the vote would be a majority one way or the other therefore both Westminster and the SNP were both happy to go with largest number wins.
I do find it quite frightening that the future of our country could be decided by one vote!

Post by **Buster Gunn** » Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:56 am

I agree with Mr. Pencil that it should not be a simple majority to decide something this important.

A vagrant off a park bench could decide the fate of millions. I see you guys have as much trouble
with politicians as we do over the pond.

Anyway. Good luck to you guys on Thursday. I hope it all works out for the better.
Still love ya no matter what happens. I predict you guys will carry 54% of the vote
'cause the youngsters won't come out to vote. Too busy.

Ian

Post by **Megacruncher** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:35 am

50% is fine, so long as the turnout is high enough, which at over 80%', it will be.
Unfortunately I think this will go in favour of Yes who seem to have been doing a good job of mobilising the young and stupid and also re registering the older but disaffected.
It'll be close.

Post by **scole of TSBT** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:27 am

In my whole life (albeit just a little over half a century), I've never had to face such a significant issue. I hope the best for you all.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:30 am

Well the day of reckoning has arrived, the wife and I are just away to head to the polling station.
This time tomorrow we shall know our fate...........

Post by **robmacagain** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:38 am

I have been getting a feeling of general foreboding inside myself for the last few days, i know that all this means to me is that down here we will more than likely just end up with more Conservative governments after the loss of 41 uk parliament labour mp's and i have zero love for the Conservatives.

I also think that this whole referendum business should/would have been avoided if when initial talks were held with the Tories and SNP Alex Salmonella (not a typo) that AS wanted more devolutionary powers to be given over and stay part of the UK but the idiot in office said that it was going to be a straight Yes or No vote because at the time the public opinion was definitely against the break up and he thought it was a no brainer, what a clown.

The stars are well and truely lined up for the SNP at the moment, most Scottish Parliament mp's and riding the crest of a wave, and why on such a major issue as has been mentioned before is it a simple majority is enough? I would have made it 70% or its a no, i hope that tomorrow morning brings the NO thanks vote in but i am extremely worried, i am English but my father was a Glaswegian and all his ancestors and i will be most upset if its a yes, but we will see, lets hope sense prevails but the hysteria is very loud at the moment maybe too loud

.

Post by **skywalker tsbt** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:24 pm

Hey gang.

Had to chime in today. Big day for you lot.

I've heard from both sides and both have compelling arguments. It's uncertain waters becoming independent. A lot of what if's.

I wonder if a referendum like this would ever surface again. You've been under the boot of England for far too long, and I would hate for Scotland to lose it's chance to be Free. But I say that from across the pond.

I'd vote yes. Either way though, I'm still Scottish.

Good luck to you all today!!

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:32 pm

I would actually argue that Scotland runs the UK. For such a small ' nation ' I for one certainly don't regard myself as under anyones boot. The UK is far more of a partnership than 4 countries and I would hate for my son to not have the advantages I have enjoyed by being part of a far smaller entity. For sport it's Scotland, for everything else it's Team GB

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:02 pm

I've never really thought about "us" running the UK, however I thought we were always a part of it.
I still don't understand what kind of control people are expecting even if we were independent and run 100% from Edinburgh, do all the yes voters expect to get king Salmonds personal mobile phone number?!
Anyway as has been mentioned it would be a hotline to the EU in Brussels you would need

#

Fully supportive of the team sporting Scotland where available and team GB elsewhere.

One of the positives I will take from this is the amount of people who have engaged in the process, not going to lie and say that it was all constructive and helpful but maybe this will help going forward no matter what the result. I certainly never expected the polling station to be so busy at 07:05 this morning!!

Post by **Buster Gunn** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:20 am

Well congrats to all. The people did the right thing. I wasn't too far off on my 54% prediction. I knew the "kids" wouldn't all show up to vote. 55%-45% is not even considered close over here. I hope Cameron follows through with his promises for more autonomy. That way you can get some of the benefits of independence without the fear of financial collapse.

You can breathe again Willie.

Oh, I almost forgot. Nice job by the Royal and Ancient dudes at St. Andrews allowing women in as members. :bounce:

Post by **robmacagain** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:27 pm

Wish eck luck as you wave him Goodbye

NOT.

Alez · Post by **Alez** » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:32 am

:cya: :bootyshake:

Should Scotland be an Independent Country